2026 midterms forecast
as of Aug 17, 2026, 2:15 AM UTC
Senate
Republicans favored to control — 54 in 100 simulations.
46% Dem control 54% Rep control mean 50.1 Dem-caucus seats Dem-caucus seats per simulated world; dashed line = majority.
House
Democrats favored to control — 94 in 100 simulations.
† Our simulation carries four of the five correlated error components 538's House model uses; the one we leave out needs data we don't have, which makes this figure slightly firmer than a fuller model's — see Known limitations.
94% Dem control 6% Rep control mean 242.2 Dem-caucus seats Dem-caucus seats per simulated world; dashed line = majority.
National environment
Generic ballot: D+6.7 (26 polls, 45-day window, as of today)
Latest dispatches
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