Pollsters
Every polling firm in this corpus, and how far its polls sit from everyone else's.
as of Aug 17, 2026, 2:15 AM UTC
How to read this
D+0.8 means this pollster's polls run 0.8 points more Democratic than the field; we subtract that before averaging. R+0.8 means the same in the other direction. The effect is measured against the other firms polling the same thing at the same time — never against the election result, which hasn't happened — so it says a firm differs from its competitors, not that it is wrong.
Raw is the firm's average gap from the field. Applied is that number pulled toward zero by how much evidence stands behind it — a firm with three polls keeps 38% of its raw effect, one with thirty keeps 86% — and then capped at 3.0 points. Firms under 3 usable polls are shown but not adjusted for. The full method is on the methodology page.
156 pollsters · 113 with an estimated effect · 46 whose effect is being applied
| Pollster | Polls | Usable | Raw effect | Applied effect | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 5 | 5 | D+8.5 | D+3.0 | Applied |
| RMG Research | 24 | 17 | R+3.7 | R+2.8 | Applied |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 18 | 15 | R+3.6 | R+2.7 | Applied |
| Harvard/Harris Poll/HarrisX | 12 | 6 | R+4.0 | R+2.2 | Applied |
| Glengariff Group | 7 | 2 | R+7.3 | R+2.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Marist University | 3 | 3 | D+5.1 | D+1.9 | Applied |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 4 | 3 | R+5.1 | R+1.9 | Applied |
| Morning Consult | 49 | 49 | R+2.0 | R+1.8 | Applied |
| Catawba College/YouGov | 2 | 2 | D+6.1 | D+1.8 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Strength In Numbers/Verasight | 22 | 13 | D+2.4 | D+1.8 | Applied |
| Survey 160 | 3 | 3 | D+4.6 | D+1.7 | Applied |
| Change Research | 15 | 5 | R+3.3 | R+1.7 | Applied |
| Tavern Research | 26 | 3 | R+4.4 | R+1.6 | Applied |
| New York Times/Siena University | 6 | 4 | R+3.7 | R+1.6 | Applied |
| Nexus Strategies/ Strategic Partners Solutions | 1 | 1 | D+9.6 | D+1.6 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| GBAO | 7 | 1 | D+9.2 | D+1.5 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Big Data Poll | 33 | 13 | D+2.1 | D+1.5 | Applied |
| Quinnipiac University | 6 | 6 | D+2.8 | D+1.5 | Applied |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 30 | 18 | R+1.8 | R+1.4 | Applied |
| GQR | 13 | 1 | D+8.4 | D+1.4 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| NHJournal/Praecones Analytica | 1 | 1 | D+8.0 | D+1.3 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Hart Research | 8 | 3 | D+3.2 | D+1.2 | Applied |
| The Bullfinch Group | 11 | 4 | D+2.7 | D+1.2 | Applied |
| Victory Insights | 2 | 1 | R+6.6 | R+1.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Quantus Insights | 28 | 25 | R+1.3 | R+1.1 | Applied |
| GrayHouse | 5 | 4 | R+2.4 | R+1.1 | Applied |
| Emerson College | 29 | 16 | D+1.4 | D+1.1 | Applied |
| Harper Polling | 9 | 4 | D+2.2 | D+1.0 | Applied |
| High Point University | 1 | 1 | D+5.6 | D+0.9 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Marquette University Law School | 14 | 5 | R+1.8 | R+0.9 | Applied |
| Z to A Research | 3 | 1 | R+5.2 | R+0.9 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| The Rainey Center | 1 | 1 | R+5.1 | R+0.8 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Yale Youth Poll | 2 | 2 | R+3.0 | R+0.8 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Elon University/YouGov | 3 | 1 | D+5.0 | D+0.8 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| HarrisX/Forbes | 6 | 2 | R+2.9 | R+0.8 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| John Zogby Strategies | 4 | 4 | R+1.9 | R+0.8 | Applied |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 3 | 3 | D+2.2 | D+0.8 | Applied |
| New York Times/Siena College | 4 | 4 | D+1.8 | D+0.8 | Applied |
| I&I/TIPP Insights | 3 | 3 | R+2.1 | R+0.8 | Applied |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 3 | 2 | D+2.7 | D+0.8 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| KFF | 2 | 2 | D+2.6 | D+0.8 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Talker Research | 2 | 2 | D+2.6 | D+0.7 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Morris Predictive Insights/Verasight | 1 | 1 | D+4.3 | D+0.7 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Saint Anselm College | 8 | 1 | R+4.2 | R+0.7 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Global Strategy Group | 9 | 2 | D+2.4 | D+0.7 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 12 | 11 | D+1.0 | D+0.7 | Applied |
| co/efficient | 13 | 4 | R+1.5 | R+0.7 | Applied |
| Texas Southern University | 2 | 2 | R+2.3 | R+0.7 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| The Economist/YouGov | 81 | 49 | R+0.7 | R+0.6 | Applied |
| GBAO/Third Way | 2 | 2 | D+2.1 | D+0.6 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 1 | 1 | D+3.4 | D+0.6 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 11 | 11 | D+0.8 | D+0.6 | Applied |
| BGSU/YouGov | 1 | 1 | D+3.1 | D+0.5 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 3 | 1 | D+2.9 | D+0.5 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Focaldata | 8 | 3 | D+1.3 | D+0.5 | Applied |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | 2 | 2 | R+1.6 | R+0.5 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| The Washington Post/Ipsos | 2 | 1 | R+2.7 | R+0.4 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Pennsylvania State University/YouGov | 2 | 2 | R+1.5 | R+0.4 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| University of Houston/YouGov | 1 | 1 | R+2.6 | R+0.4 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| The Winston Group | 3 | 3 | D+1.1 | D+0.4 | Applied |
| A2 Insights | 2 | 2 | D+1.4 | D+0.4 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Cygnal | 24 | 22 | R+0.5 | R+0.4 | Applied |
| Impact Research | 20 | 1 | R+2.3 | R+0.4 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Rasmussen Reports | 5 | 5 | R+0.8 | R+0.4 | Applied |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | 2 | 2 | D+1.3 | D+0.4 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos | 3 | 2 | R+1.3 | R+0.4 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Echelon Insights | 24 | 20 | R+0.5 | R+0.4 | Applied |
| OnMessage Public Strategies | 1 | 1 | D+2.2 | D+0.4 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Fabrizio Ward | 2 | 2 | D+1.2 | D+0.3 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| NewsNation/DDHQ | 3 | 2 | R+1.1 | R+0.3 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| National Association of Independent Pollsters | 1 | 1 | R+1.8 | R+0.3 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Manhattan Institute | 1 | 1 | R+1.8 | R+0.3 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| RealClear Opinion Research | 1 | 1 | R+1.7 | R+0.3 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| HarrisX/2WAY | 4 | 1 | R+1.6 | R+0.3 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| EPIC-MRA | 1 | 1 | R+1.6 | R+0.3 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| High Point University/YouGov | 2 | 1 | D+1.5 | D+0.3 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Mitchell Research | 1 | 1 | R+1.5 | R+0.2 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Data for Progress | 10 | 3 | D+0.6 | D+0.2 | Applied |
| The Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos | 1 | 1 | R+1.4 | R+0.2 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| SoCal Strategies | 3 | 3 | R+0.6 | R+0.2 | Applied |
| Wedgewood Polls | 4 | 2 | D+0.8 | D+0.2 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Impact Research/ BSP Research | 1 | 1 | R+1.2 | R+0.2 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| YouGov Blue | 2 | 2 | D+0.7 | D+0.2 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University | 2 | 2 | D+0.6 | D+0.2 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Public Policy Polling | 62 | 7 | R+0.3 | R+0.2 | Applied |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | 1 | 1 | R+1.0 | R+0.2 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| CNN/SSRS | 5 | 5 | D+0.3 | D+0.2 | Applied |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | 4 | 1 | D+0.9 | D+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| TIPP Insights | 4 | 1 | R+0.8 | R+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| CBS News/YouGov | 3 | 3 | R+0.3 | R+0.1 | Applied |
| Zenith Research | 2 | 1 | D+0.7 | D+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Bullfinch Group | 1 | 1 | D+0.7 | D+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Normington Petts/Third Way | 1 | 1 | R+0.6 | R+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Research Co. | 1 | 1 | R+0.6 | R+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Opinion Diagnostics | 1 | 1 | D+0.6 | D+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| The Argument/Verasight | 20 | 10 | D+0.1 | D+0.1 | Applied |
| Pew Research Center | 1 | 1 | D+0.5 | D+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Impact Research/ National Research Inc. | 2 | 2 | D+0.2 | D+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Fabrizio/Impact Research | 1 | 1 | R+0.4 | R+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| J.L. Partners | 1 | 1 | R+0.4 | R+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Morning Consult/Cato Institute | 1 | 1 | D+0.4 | D+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| ActiVote | 1 | 1 | D+0.3 | D+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| AlphaROC | 2 | 2 | R+0.2 | R+0.1 | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| i360 | 1 | 1 | D+0.3 | Even | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Zogby Analytics | 1 | 1 | D+0.3 | Even | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| University of New Hampshire | 20 | 1 | D+0.2 | Even | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Public Religion Research Institute | 1 | 1 | R+0.2 | Even | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Focaldata/Financial Times | 9 | 3 | R+0.1 | Even | Applied |
| Yahoo News/YouGov | 7 | 7 | Even | Even | Applied |
| Noble Predictive Insights/ The Center Square | 3 | 3 | R+0.1 | Even | Applied |
| Tulchin Research | 10 | 3 | Even | Even | Applied |
| Fabrizio Ward/ Impact Research | 3 | 2 | D+0.1 | Even | Shown only — under 3 usable polls |
| Hart Research Associates/ Public Opinion Strategies | 10 | 10 | Even | Even | Applied |
| Alaska Survey Research | 12 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Ragnar Research Partners | 11 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| University of North Florida | 6 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| SurveyUSA | 5 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Blueprint Polling | 4 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| FM3 Research | 4 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Patriot Polling | 4 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| 2040 Strategy Group | 3 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Lake Research Partners | 3 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| MDW Communications | 3 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Normington Petts | 3 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Peak Insights | 3 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Upswing Research | 3 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Beacon Insights | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| DCCC | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Middle Seat | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Pulse Science Decision | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| St. Pete Polls | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Stetson University | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Suffolk University | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| The Mellman Group | 2 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Applecart | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Bedrock Polling | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Cherry Communications | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| EMC Research | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Expedition Strategies | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Independent Center Voice | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Inquire LLC | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Keating Research | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Lake Research | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| MDW | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Rosetta Stone Communications | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| The Public Sentiment Institute/ Virginia Project | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| The Tyson Group | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Trafalgar Group | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| UT Tyler | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| Wick | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| WPA Intelligence | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
| yes. every kid. | 1 | 0 | — | — | No estimate — nothing comparable to measure against |
“Usable” counts the polls that produced a comparison — one per firm per field period, excluding polls in races whose polling disagrees about who is running, polls against a placeholder opponent, and polls with no other firm in the field within 45 days. A firm with polls but no usable ones gets no estimate at all, which is a different thing from an estimate of zero.