AK-1
Democrats are favored, winning in 73 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 73%
Estimated margin
D+6.4
5th–95th interval
R+11.0 to D+23.7
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+10.1
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Hill (I) vs Nick Begich III (R) · 3 polls | ||||||
| GBAO | Aug 3–Aug 5, 2026 | 500 lv | Rep 46.0% Ind 42.0% | — | — | Source |
| Tavern Research | May 18–May 27, 2026 | 452 lv | Rep 52.0% Ind 48.0% | — | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Feb 11–Feb 12, 2026 | 600 lv | Rep 41.0% Ind 37.0% | — | — | Source |
| Matt Schultz (D) vs Nick Begich III (R) · 4 polls | ||||||
| New York Times/Siena University | Jun 15–Jun 29, 2026 | 593 lv | Rep 51.0% Dem 39.0% | R+12.0 | R+10.4 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
| Tavern Research | May 18–May 27, 2026 | 452 lv | Rep 55.0% Dem 45.0% | R+10.0 | R+8.4 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Feb 11–Feb 12, 2026 | 600 lv | Rep 46.0% Dem 39.0% | R+7.0 | R+6.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Data for Progress | Oct 17–Oct 23, 2025 | 823 lv | Rep 48.0% Dem 37.0% | R+11.0 | R+11.2 D+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Mary Peltola (D) vs Nick Begich III (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Data for Progress | Feb 28–Mar 7, 2025 | 1,000 lv | Rep 46.0% Dem 46.0% | Even | R+0.2 D+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
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