AZ-6
Democrats are favored, winning in 74 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 74%
Estimated margin
D+6.8
5th–95th interval
R+10.4 to D+23.7
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+2.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington Petts | Jun 8–Jun 11, 2026 | 500 lv | Dem 47.0% Rep 45.0% | D+2.0 | — | Source |
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 12–Mar 14, 2026 | 400 lv | Dem 47.0% Rep 44.0% | D+3.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Oct 14–Oct 15, 2025 | 581 lv | Dem 42.0% Rep 41.0% | D+1.0 | D+1.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.