AZ-8
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 64 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
R 64%
Estimated margin
R+3.6
5th–95th interval
R+20.7 to D+13.8
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.