CA-22
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 60 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
D 60%
Estimated margin
D+2.6
5th–95th interval
R+15.0 to D+19.8
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+4.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Valadao (R) vs Randy Villegas (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Tulchin Research | Jun 15–Jun 21, 2026 | 800 lv | Dem 48.0% Rep 44.0% | D+4.0 | D+4.0 Even lean removed | Source |
| David Valadao (R) vs Jasmeet Bains (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | Aug 6–Aug 8, 2025 | 547 unknown | Rep 42.0% Dem 42.0% | Even | D+0.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.