CA-40
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 54 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
R 54%
Estimated margin
R+1.2
5th–95th interval
R+18.5 to D+15.7
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esther Kim Varet (D) vs Young Kim (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Tulchin Research | Jan 14–Jan 19, 2026 | 800 lv | Rep 44.0% Dem 43.0% | R+1.0 | R+1.0 Even lean removed | Source |
| Esther Kim Varet (D) vs Ken Calvert (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Tulchin Research | Jan 14–Jan 19, 2026 | 800 lv | Rep 44.0% Dem 44.0% | Even | Even Even lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.