CA-48
Republicans are favored, winning in 79 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 79%
Estimated margin
R+8.5
5th–95th interval
R+26.0 to D+8.7
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+2.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Desmond (R) vs Marni von Wilpert (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Lake Research | Jul 9–Jul 14, 2026 | 500 lv | Dem 48.0% Rep 46.0% | D+2.0 | — | Source |
| Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) vs Darrell Issa (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Blueprint Polling | Oct 25–Oct 26, 2025 | 517 lv | Dem 43.0% Rep 40.0% | D+3.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.