CO-3
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 65 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
D 65%
Estimated margin
D+3.8
5th–95th interval
R+13.3 to D+21.0
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+1.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Romero (D) vs Jeff Hurd (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Keating Research | Jul 21–Jul 23, 2026 | 500 lv | Rep 46.0% Dem 45.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
| Alex Kelloff (D) vs Jeff Hurd (R) · 2 polls | ||||||
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 10–Mar 12, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 46.0% Dem 41.0% | R+5.0 | — | Source |
| Expedition Strategies | Jan 8–Jan 12, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 48.0% Dem 39.0% | R+9.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.