CO-4
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 59 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
R 59%
Estimated margin
R+2.4
5th–95th interval
R+19.7 to D+14.9
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
No public polling — forecast rests on fundamentals (state lean, national environment).
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.