CO-5
Republicans are favored, winning in 67 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 67%
Estimated margin
R+4.5
5th–95th interval
R+21.6 to D+12.3
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+1.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | Jul 16–Jul 21, 2026 | 450 lv | Rep 45.0% Dem 44.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
| Global Strategy Group | Oct 30–Nov 3, 2025 | 450 lv | Rep 43.0% Dem 40.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.