FL-2
Republicans are favored, winning in 91 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 91%
Estimated margin
R+14.0
5th–95th interval
R+31.4 to D+2.9
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
The recent polling here measures 4 different matchups, so there is no single contest to average — the forecast rests on fundamentals (the district's 2024 result and the national environment) until the nominees are settled. Every poll is below, grouped by the matchup it tested.
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Gross (R) vs Nic Zateslo (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Patriot Polling | Jul 22–Jul 26, 2026 | 922 unknown | Rep 59.0% Dem 39.0% | R+20.0 | — | Source |
| Amanda Green (D) vs Keith Gross (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Patriot Polling | Jul 22–Jul 26, 2026 | 922 unknown | Rep 61.0% Dem 37.0% | R+24.0 | — | Source |
| Brice Barnes (D) vs Keith Gross (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Patriot Polling | Jul 22–Jul 26, 2026 | 922 unknown | Rep 60.0% Dem 39.0% | R+21.0 | — | Source |
| Keith Gross (R) vs Yen Bailey (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Patriot Polling | Jul 22–Jul 26, 2026 | 922 unknown | Rep 62.0% Dem 35.0% | R+27.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.