FL-7
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 64 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
R 64%
Estimated margin
R+3.7
5th–95th interval
R+20.9 to D+13.5
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+2.2
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | May 20–May 21, 2026 | 570 rv | Dem 41.0% Rep 39.0% | D+2.0 | D+2.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.