FL-11
Republicans are favored, winning in 85 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 85%
Estimated margin
R+10.5
5th–95th interval
R+27.7 to D+6.3
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: Even
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDW Communications | Jul 28–Jul 29, 2026 | n/a unknown | Dem 42.0% Rep 42.0% | Even | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.