FL-12
Republicans are favored, winning in 100 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 100%
Estimated margin
R+32.1
5th–95th interval
R+49.1 to R+14.7
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+1.8
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Jun 26–Jun 27, 2026 | 594 rv | Rep 42.0% Dem 40.0% | R+2.0 | R+1.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.