FL-13
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 58 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
R 58%
Estimated margin
R+2.1
5th–95th interval
R+19.6 to D+14.9
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+5.4
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQR | Aug 4–Aug 6, 2026 | 500 lv | Rep 47.0% Dem 44.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | Aug 4–Aug 6, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 49.0% Dem 41.0% | R+8.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | May 19–May 20, 2026 | 616 rv | Rep 41.0% Dem 39.0% | R+2.0 | R+1.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.