FL-14
Democrats are favored, winning in 99 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 99%
Estimated margin
D+24.6
5th–95th interval
D+7.2 to D+41.8
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
The recent polling here measures 2 different matchups, so there is no single contest to average — the forecast rests on fundamentals (the district's 2024 result and the national environment) until the nominees are settled. Every poll is below, grouped by the matchup it tested.
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kathy Castor (D) vs Kevin Steele (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| St. Pete Polls | Jul 14–Jul 15, 2026 | 469 lv | Dem 46.0% Rep 39.0% | D+7.0 | — | Source |
| Kathy Castor (D) vs Mike Beltran (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| St. Pete Polls | Jul 14–Jul 15, 2026 | 469 lv | Dem 46.0% Rep 38.0% | D+8.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.