FL-22
Democrats are favored, winning in 96 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 96%
Estimated margin
D+19.0
5th–95th interval
D+1.7 to D+35.9
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+1.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQR | Jun 18–Jun 25, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 46.0% Dem 45.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.