FL-25
Democrats are favored, winning in 96 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 96%
Estimated margin
D+18.2
5th–95th interval
D+0.8 to D+35.2
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
The recent polling here measures 4 different matchups, so there is no single contest to average — the forecast rests on fundamentals (the district's 2024 result and the national environment) until the nominees are settled. Every poll is below, grouped by the matchup it tested.
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Larkin (D) vs Scott Singer (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Middle Seat | May 5–May 6, 2026 | 576 unknown | Dem 45.0% Rep 33.0% | D+12.0 | — | Source |
| George Moraitis (R) vs Oliver Larkin (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Middle Seat | May 5–May 6, 2026 | 576 unknown | Dem 43.0% Rep 34.0% | D+9.0 | — | Source |
| Jared Moskowitz (D) vs Scott Singer (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Beacon Insights | May 1–May 2, 2026 | 461 rv | Dem 43.0% Rep 33.0% | D+10.0 | — | Source |
| George Moraitis (R) vs Jared Moskowitz (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Beacon Insights | May 1–May 2, 2026 | 461 rv | Dem 40.0% Rep 39.0% | D+1.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.