FL-27
Republicans are favored, winning in 87 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 87%
Estimated margin
R+11.5
5th–95th interval
R+28.5 to D+5.6
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliot Rodriguez (D) vs María Elvira Salazar (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Blueprint Polling | Mar 6–Mar 8, 2026 | 451 rv | Rep 46.0% Dem 43.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
| María Elvira Salazar (R) vs Robin Peguero (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Blueprint Polling | Mar 6–Mar 8, 2026 | 451 rv | Rep 47.0% Dem 40.0% | R+7.0 | — | Source |
| María Elvira Salazar (R) vs Richard Lamondin (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| MDW Communications | Apr 9–Apr 12, 2025 | 555 lv | Rep 46.0% Dem 43.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.