IA-2
Republicans are favored, winning in 71 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 71%
Estimated margin
R+5.7
5th–95th interval
R+22.7 to D+11.2
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+1.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | Jul 14–Jul 19, 2026 | n/a unknown | Dem 46.0% Rep 45.0% | D+1.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Apr 13–Apr 14, 2026 | 675 rv | Dem 36.0% Rep 33.0% | D+3.0 | D+3.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.