ID-1
Republicans are favored, winning in 100 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 100%
Estimated margin
R+32.5
5th–95th interval
R+49.4 to R+15.2
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+15.2
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaylee Peterson (D) vs Russ Fulcher (R) vs Sarah Zabel (I) · 2 polls | ||||||
| Change Research | Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026 | 606 lv | Rep 48.0% Dem 27.0% Ind 5.0% | R+21.0 | R+19.3 R+1.7 lean removed | Source |
| SurveyUSA | Jul 7–Jul 14, 2026 | 480 lv | Rep 45.0% Dem 35.0% Ind 6.0% | R+10.0 | — | Source |
| Russ Fulcher (R) vs Sarah Zabel (I) · 1 poll | ||||||
| SurveyUSA | Jul 7–Jul 14, 2026 | 478 lv | Ind 42.0% Rep 39.0% | — | — | Source |
| Kaylee Peterson (D) vs Russ Fulcher (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| SurveyUSA | Jul 7–Jul 14, 2026 | 478 lv | Rep 44.0% Dem 39.0% | R+5.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.