IN-5
Republicans are favored, winning in 81 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 81%
Estimated margin
R+9.0
5th–95th interval
R+26.2 to D+7.8
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+2.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | Jul 16–Jul 20, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 48.0% Dem 46.0% | R+2.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.