KY-6
Republicans are favored, winning in 95 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 95%
Estimated margin
R+17.8
5th–95th interval
R+34.8 to R+0.5
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
The recent polling here measures 3 different matchups, so there is no single contest to average — the forecast rests on fundamentals (the district's 2024 result and the national environment) until the nominees are settled. Every poll is below, grouped by the matchup it tested.
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ralph Alvarado (R) vs Zach Dembo (D) · 3 polls | ||||||
| DCCC | Jul 29–Jul 30, 2026 | 474 unknown | Rep 47.0% Dem 47.0% | Even | — | Source |
| GQR | Jun 24–Jun 28, 2026 | 440 unknown | Rep 42.0% Dem 39.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Apr 24–Apr 25, 2026 | 675 rv | Rep 37.0% Dem 37.0% | Even | D+0.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Ryan Dotson (R) vs Zach Dembo (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | Apr 24–Apr 25, 2026 | 675 rv | Dem 38.0% Rep 33.0% | D+5.0 | D+5.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Cherlynn Stevenson (D) vs Ralph Alvarado (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling | Apr 24–Apr 25, 2026 | 675 rv | Rep 37.0% Dem 36.0% | R+1.0 | R+0.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.