ME-2
Democrats are favored, winning in 83 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 83%
Estimated margin
D+9.9
5th–95th interval
R+7.6 to D+27.4
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
The recent polling here measures 2 different matchups, so there is no single contest to average — the forecast rests on fundamentals (the district's 2024 result and the national environment) until the nominees are settled. Every poll is below, grouped by the matchup it tested.
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Dunlap (D) vs Paul LePage (R) · 4 polls | ||||||
| Tulchin Research | Jul 11–Jul 16, 2026 | 600 lv | Dem 49.0% Rep 48.0% | D+1.0 | D+1.0 Even lean removed | Source |
| co/efficient | Apr 26–Apr 28, 2026 | 918 lv | Rep 50.0% Dem 40.0% | R+10.0 | R+9.3 R+0.7 lean removed | Source |
| University of New Hampshire | Feb 12–Feb 16, 2026 | 521 lv | Rep 47.0% Dem 46.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
| The Mellman Group | Jun 4–Jun 10, 2025 | 400 lv | Rep 47.0% Dem 37.0% | R+10.0 | — | Source |
| Joe Baldacci (D) vs Paul LePage (R) · 3 polls | ||||||
| Pan Atlantic Research | May 8–May 18, 2026 | 418 lv | Dem 49.0% Rep 41.0% | D+8.0 | — | Source |
| University of New Hampshire | Feb 12–Feb 16, 2026 | 520 lv | Rep 48.0% Dem 47.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
| Pan Atlantic Research | Nov 29–Dec 7, 2025 | 387 lv | Rep 44.0% Dem 43.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
| Jordan Wood (D) vs Paul LePage (R) · 2 polls | ||||||
| Upswing Research | Feb 24–Feb 27, 2026 | 403 lv | Rep 52.0% Dem 45.0% | R+7.0 | — | Source |
| University of New Hampshire | Feb 12–Feb 16, 2026 | 521 lv | Rep 48.0% Dem 44.0% | R+4.0 | — | Source |
| Jared Golden (D) vs Paul LePage (R) · 4 polls | ||||||
| University of New Hampshire | Oct 16–Oct 21, 2025 | 546 lv | Rep 49.0% Dem 44.0% | R+5.0 | — | Source |
| University of New Hampshire | Jun 19–Jun 23, 2025 | 394 unknown | Rep 50.0% Dem 47.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
| The Mellman Group | Jun 4–Jun 10, 2025 | 400 lv | Dem 44.0% Rep 43.0% | D+1.0 | — | Source |
| Ragnar Research Partners | Apr 13–Apr 15, 2025 | 400 lv | Rep 48.0% Dem 43.0% | R+5.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.