MI-4
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 59 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
R 59%
Estimated margin
R+2.5
5th–95th interval
R+19.5 to D+14.6
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+3.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO | May 28–Jun 1, 2026 | 500 lv | Dem 48.0% Rep 45.0% | D+3.0 | — | Source |
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 12–Mar 14, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 48.0% Dem 42.0% | R+6.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Nov 20–Nov 21, 2025 | 559 rv | Rep 44.0% Dem 42.0% | R+2.0 | R+1.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.