MI-7
Democrats are favored, winning in 70 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 70%
Estimated margin
D+5.5
5th–95th interval
R+11.5 to D+22.6
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
The recent polling here measures 3 different matchups, so there is no single contest to average — the forecast rests on fundamentals (the district's 2024 result and the national environment) until the nominees are settled. Every poll is below, grouped by the matchup it tested.
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Maasdam (D) vs Tom Barrett (R) · 3 polls | ||||||
| Data for Progress | Jun 24–Jun 30, 2026 | 772 lv | Rep 47.0% Dem 46.0% | R+1.0 | R+1.2 D+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Apr 24–Apr 26, 2026 | 519 rv | Dem 45.0% Rep 44.0% | D+1.0 | D+1.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Oct 27–Oct 28, 2025 | 557 rv | Dem 43.0% Rep 39.0% | D+4.0 | D+4.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Bridget Brink (D) vs Tom Barrett (R) · 3 polls | ||||||
| Data for Progress | Jun 24–Jun 30, 2026 | 772 lv | Rep 46.0% Dem 45.0% | R+1.0 | R+1.2 D+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Apr 24–Apr 26, 2026 | 519 rv | Dem 46.0% Rep 45.0% | D+1.0 | D+1.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Oct 27–Oct 28, 2025 | 557 rv | Dem 45.0% Rep 41.0% | D+4.0 | D+4.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Tom Barrett (R) vs William Lawrence (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Data for Progress | Jun 24–Jun 30, 2026 | 772 lv | Dem 48.0% Rep 46.0% | D+2.0 | D+1.8 D+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.