MN-1
Republicans are favored, winning in 76 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 76%
Estimated margin
R+7.6
5th–95th interval
R+25.0 to D+9.6
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 12–Mar 14, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 52.0% Dem 42.0% | R+10.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Feb 2–Feb 3, 2026 | 708 rv | Rep 44.0% Dem 41.0% | R+3.0 | R+2.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.