MN-2
Democrats are favored, winning in 98 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 98%
Estimated margin
D+22.8
5th–95th interval
D+5.6 to D+40.1
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
The recent polling here measures 3 different matchups, so there is no single contest to average — the forecast rests on fundamentals (the district's 2024 result and the national environment) until the nominees are settled. Every poll is below, grouped by the matchup it tested.
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Pratt (R) vs Matt Little (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Harper Polling | Jun 18–Jun 21, 2026 | 415 lv | Dem 45.0% Rep 40.0% | D+5.0 | D+4.0 D+1.0 lean removed | Source |
| Eric Pratt (R) vs Matt Klein (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Harper Polling | Jun 18–Jun 21, 2026 | 415 lv | Dem 43.0% Rep 42.0% | D+1.0 | Even D+1.0 lean removed | Source |
| Eric Pratt (R) vs Kaela Berg (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Harper Polling | Jun 18–Jun 21, 2026 | 415 lv | Dem 43.0% Rep 43.0% | Even | R+1.0 D+1.0 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.