MT-1
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 56 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
D 56%
Estimated margin
D+1.6
5th–95th interval
R+15.5 to D+18.8
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
The recent polling here measures 2 different matchups, so there is no single contest to average — the forecast rests on fundamentals (the district's 2024 result and the national environment) until the nominees are settled. Every poll is below, grouped by the matchup it tested.
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Flint (R) vs Nick Sheedy (L) vs Sam Forstag (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Impact Research | Jun 22–Jun 25, 2026 | 500 lv | Rep 44.0% Dem 44.0% Other 5.0% | Even | — | Source |
| Aaron Flint (R) vs Matt Rains (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Upswing Research | Apr 30–May 5, 2026 | 401 lv | Rep 47.0% Dem 43.0% | R+4.0 | — | Source |
| Aaron Flint (R) vs Sam Forstag (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Upswing Research | Apr 30–May 5, 2026 | 401 lv | Rep 48.0% Dem 43.0% | R+5.0 | — | Source |
| Ryan Zinke (R) vs Sam Forstag (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Peak Insights | Jan 12–Jan 15, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 48.0% Dem 38.0% | R+10.0 | — | Source |
| Ryan Busse (D) vs Ryan Zinke (R) · 2 polls | ||||||
| Peak Insights | Jan 12–Jan 15, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 47.0% Dem 41.0% | R+6.0 | — | Source |
| Tulchin Research | Nov 22–Nov 25, 2025 | 424 lv | Dem 47.0% Rep 43.0% | D+4.0 | D+4.0 Even lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.