NC-1
Democrats are favored, winning in 85 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 85%
Estimated margin
D+10.7
5th–95th interval
R+6.3 to D+27.7
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+3.8
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don Davis (D) vs Laurie Buckhout (R) vs Tom Bailey (L) · 2 polls | ||||||
| GQR | Jun 22–Jun 28, 2026 | 500 lv | Dem 45.0% Rep 41.0% Other 8.0% | D+4.0 | — | Source |
| GQR | Jan 29–Feb 2, 2026 | 500 lv | Dem 42.0% Rep 39.0% Other 9.0% | D+3.0 | — | Source |
| Don Davis (D) vs Laurie Buckhout (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| co/efficient | Apr 25–Apr 29, 2026 | 842 lv | Dem 41.0% Rep 41.0% | Even | D+0.7 R+0.7 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.