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pol

NC-10

Republicans are favored, winning in 83 in 100 simulations.

Forecast detail

as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC

Rating

Favors Rep

Win probability

R 83%

Estimated margin

R+10.2

5th–95th interval

R+27.4 to D+7.0

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
Ragnar Research Partners Mar 10–Mar 12, 2026 400 lv Rep 52.0% Dem 37.0% R+15.0 Source

Dispatches about this race

No dispatches about this race yet.