NC-11
Republicans are favored, winning in 67 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 67%
Estimated margin
R+4.5
5th–95th interval
R+21.7 to D+12.4
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | Dec 15–Dec 17, 2025 | 500 lv | Dem 45.0% Rep 44.0% | D+1.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.