NE-1
Republicans are favored, winning in 85 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 85%
Estimated margin
R+10.9
5th–95th interval
R+28.2 to D+6.3
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+2.2
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Backemeyer (D) vs Mike Flood (R) · 2 polls | ||||||
| Tavern Research | May 16–May 19, 2026 | 1,079 lv | Rep 45.0% Dem 43.0% | R+2.0 | R+0.4 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
| Zenith Research | May 8–May 11, 2026 | 371 lv | Rep 45.0% Dem 38.0% | R+7.0 | — | Source |
| Austin Ahlman (I) vs Chris Backemeyer (D) vs Mike Flood (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Tavern Research | May 16–May 19, 2026 | 1,079 lv | Rep 41.0% Dem 33.0% Ind 9.0% | R+8.0 | R+6.4 R+1.6 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.