NH-2
Democrats are favored, winning in 93 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 93%
Estimated margin
D+15.2
5th–95th interval
R+1.7 to D+32.3
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+19.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm College | Jun 24–Jun 25, 2026 | 802 rv | Dem 50.0% Rep 31.0% | D+19.0 | — | Source |
| Saint Anselm College | Mar 16–Mar 18, 2026 | 739 rv | Dem 48.0% Rep 36.0% | D+12.0 | — | Source |
| University of New Hampshire | Jan 15–Jan 19, 2026 | 1,093 lv | Dem 54.0% Rep 40.0% | D+14.0 | — | Source |
| Saint Anselm College | Nov 18–Nov 19, 2025 | 1,102 rv | Dem 40.0% Rep 35.0% | D+5.0 | — | Source |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–Sep 23, 2025 | 659 lv | Dem 51.0% Rep 39.0% | D+12.0 | — | Source |
| Saint Anselm College | Aug 26–Aug 27, 2025 | 881 rv | Dem 49.0% Rep 31.0% | D+18.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.