NJ-7
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 65 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
D 65%
Estimated margin
D+3.9
5th–95th interval
R+13.2 to D+21.0
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
The recent polling here measures 2 different matchups, so there is no single contest to average — the forecast rests on fundamentals (the district's 2024 result and the national environment) until the nominees are settled. Every poll is below, grouped by the matchup it tested.
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tina Shah (D) vs Tom Kean Jr. (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Z to A Research | May 24–May 26, 2026 | 430 lv | Dem 46.0% Rep 43.0% | D+3.0 | — | Source |
| Rebecca Bennett (D) vs Tom Kean Jr. (R) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Z to A Research | May 24–May 26, 2026 | 430 lv | Dem 47.0% Rep 43.0% | D+4.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.