NY-17
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 57 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
D 57%
Estimated margin
D+1.7
5th–95th interval
R+15.3 to D+18.7
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+2.5
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | Jul 20–Jul 22, 2026 | 1,292 lv | Rep 50.0% Dem 45.0% | R+5.0 | R+4.3 R+0.7 lean removed | Source |
| FM3 Research | Jun 27–Jul 1, 2026 | 509 lv | Dem 51.0% Rep 45.0% | D+6.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.