NY-21
Republicans are favored, winning in 85 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 85%
Estimated margin
R+10.7
5th–95th interval
R+28.0 to D+6.5
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+3.9
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Constantino (R) vs Blake Gendebien (D) vs Robert Smullen (C) · 1 poll | ||||||
| SurveyUSA | Aug 4–Aug 8, 2026 | 612 lv | Dem 43.0% Rep 39.0% Other 5.0% | D+4.0 | — | Source |
| Anthony Constantino (R) vs Blake Gendebien (D) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Impact Research | May 26–May 31, 2026 | 500 lv | Rep 45.0% Dem 44.0% | R+1.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.