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OH-9

Democrats are favored, winning in 83 in 100 simulations.

Forecast detail

as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC

Rating

Favors Dem

Win probability

D 83%

Estimated margin

D+9.9

5th–95th interval

R+7.4 to D+27.0

Win probability over time

Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band

Polls

Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+1.3

Pollster Dates Sample Results Margin House adj. Source
McLaughlin & Associates Apr 18–Apr 20, 2026 400 lv Rep 47.0% Dem 43.0% R+4.0 R+1.3 R+2.7 lean removed Source

Dispatches about this race

No dispatches about this race yet.