OH-10
Republicans are favored, winning in 79 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 79%
Estimated margin
R+8.5
5th–95th interval
R+25.9 to D+8.9
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+5.7
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristina Knickerbocker (D) vs Mike Turner (R) vs Thomas McMasters (L) · 1 poll | ||||||
| Global Strategy Group | Jul 20–Jul 23, 2026 | 700 lv | Rep 45.0% Dem 40.0% Other 4.0% | R+5.0 | — | Source |
| Kristina Knickerbocker (D) vs Mike Turner (R) · 2 polls | ||||||
| Global Strategy Group | Jul 20–Jul 23, 2026 | 700 lv | Rep 49.0% Dem 42.0% | R+7.0 | — | Source |
| FM3 Research | Jul 6–Jul 12, 2026 | 535 lv | Rep 48.0% Dem 41.0% | R+7.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.