OH-15
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 64 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
R 64%
Estimated margin
R+3.6
5th–95th interval
R+20.8 to D+13.4
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+6.2
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research | Jun 23–Jun 25, 2026 | 550 lv | Rep 45.0% Dem 40.0% | R+5.0 | R+6.2 D+1.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.