PA-1
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 64 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
R 64%
Estimated margin
R+3.6
5th–95th interval
R+20.9 to D+13.8
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | Mar 19–Mar 22, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 48.0% Dem 42.0% | R+6.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Oct 10–Oct 11, 2025 | 585 lv | Rep 41.0% Dem 41.0% | Even | D+0.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.