PA-8
Democrats are favored, winning in 77 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 77%
Estimated margin
D+7.5
5th–95th interval
R+9.7 to D+24.8
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+1.6
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners | Jun 18–Jun 23, 2026 | 400 unknown | Dem 47.0% Rep 45.0% | D+2.0 | — | Source |
| Impact Research | Jun 8–Jun 11, 2026 | 500 lv | Dem 46.0% Rep 45.0% | D+1.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Aug 27–Aug 28, 2025 | 615 unknown | Dem 45.0% Rep 43.0% | D+2.0 | D+2.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.