PA-10
Democrats are favored, winning in 78 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 78%
Estimated margin
D+8.2
5th–95th interval
R+8.7 to D+25.4
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+6.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington Petts | Apr 20–Apr 23, 2026 | 400 rv | Dem 51.0% Rep 45.0% | D+6.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Nov 18–Nov 19, 2025 | 549 rv | Dem 48.0% Rep 44.0% | D+4.0 | D+4.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 10–Jul 11, 2025 | 559 unknown | Dem 46.0% Rep 43.0% | D+3.0 | D+3.2 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.