SC-7
Republicans are favored, winning in 96 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 96%
Estimated margin
R+18.6
5th–95th interval
R+35.9 to R+1.2
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+4.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blueprint Polling | Jul 27–Jul 28, 2026 | 557 lv | Rep 41.0% Dem 37.0% | R+4.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.