TN-5
Republicans are favored, winning in 78 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 78%
Estimated margin
R+8.1
5th–95th interval
R+25.3 to D+9.3
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+6.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | May 11–May 13, 2026 | 558 lv | Rep 47.0% Dem 41.0% | R+6.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.