TX-15
This race is a Tossup — the leading side wins in 64 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Tossup
Win probability
R 64%
Estimated margin
R+3.8
5th–95th interval
R+21.0 to D+13.4
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: D+5.8
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington Petts | Jul 23–Jul 27, 2026 | 553 lv | Dem 51.0% Rep 45.0% | D+6.0 | — | Source |
| Applecart | May 18–May 25, 2026 | 802 lv | Dem 48.0% Rep 46.0% | D+2.0 | — | Source |
| Public Policy Polling | Sep 10–Sep 11, 2025 | 533 lv | Rep 41.0% Dem 38.0% | R+3.0 | R+2.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.