TX-23
Republicans are favored, winning in 93 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Rep
Win probability
R 93%
Estimated margin
R+15.3
5th–95th interval
R+32.4 to D+1.8
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Mar 10–Mar 11, 2026 | 521 unknown | Rep 42.0% Dem 40.0% | R+2.0 | R+1.8 R+0.2 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.