TX-28
Democrats are favored, winning in 91 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 91%
Estimated margin
D+14.4
5th–95th interval
R+3.0 to D+31.3
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+9.0
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pulse Science Decision | Jun 21–Jun 23, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 42.0% Dem 33.0% | R+9.0 | — | Source |
| Pulse Science Decision | Jun 21–Jun 23, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 46.0% Dem 38.0% | R+8.0 | — | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.