TX-34
Democrats are favored, winning in 86 in 100 simulations.
Forecast detail
as of Aug 17, 2026, 3:27 AM UTC
Rating
Favors Dem
Win probability
D 86%
Estimated margin
D+11.5
5th–95th interval
R+5.7 to D+28.8
Win probability over time
Dem win probability Rep win probability Tossup band
Polls
Dem-leaning poll Rep-leaning poll current average: R+2.7
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Results | Margin | House adj. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | Jun 14–Jun 16, 2026 | 400 lv | Rep 44.0% Dem 41.0% | R+3.0 | — | Source |
| co/efficient | Apr 25–Apr 29, 2026 | 777 lv | Rep 41.0% Dem 40.0% | R+1.0 | R+0.3 R+0.7 lean removed | Source |
Dispatches about this race
No dispatches about this race yet.